Assured Income from Stock Market Part-III

 

 

As a logical precursor please read the Part – I& II article  written by me vide the below link:

1.     http://sanghihari.blogspot.com/2011/10/introduction-to-capital-market.html

2.    https://sanghihari.blogspot.com/2020/08/assured-income-from-stock-market-part-ii.html?m=0

India is progressing at an envious rate where precious metals are performing very well and so is stock markets in India as the stock market glimpse is as under:

1.    SENSEX is @81537.7

2.    NIFTY @25048.65

 Silver is outperforming all metal class which needs a deep dive for a common man’s confusion which is the safest asset compared to all class investment option especially vis-à-vis fixed asset which is considered as the safest invest option above all risks,

Dinesh Kucheria, a friend & a qualified and practicing Chartered Accountant cautioned my wisdom investing more than Rs. 50 Lakhs in ETF SILVERBEES, which is quite contrary to the parable Don’t put all the eggs in one basket. Let me share the conversation.

Dinesh Kucheria

Silver at 3 lacs per kg.

 

Major Silver Crashes – Explained ✍🏾

1.    1980 Crash – The Hunt Brothers Bubble

- Silver spiked to ~$50/oz

- Then collapsed to ~$5/oz

- ~90% fall

- Reason: U.S. government intervened, COMEX changed trading rules, speculative bubble burst.

 

2.    2011 – Post-Gold Rally Crash

- Went from ~$48/oz (2011 peak)

- Down to ~$12/oz (2015–2016

- ~75% fall

- Reason: Fed rate hikes, tapering, money moved back to equities, strong dollar.

3.    2020 Pandemic Spike → Pullback

- Jumped to ~$30/oz

- Fell back to ~$18/oz

- ~40% fall

- Reason: Panic demand faded, industrial slowdown.

 Why Silver Falls So Deep?

Because silver is:

- Highly speculative

- Industrial demand dependent

- A small market → easy for large funds to move price

- Often driven by cycles

 

Silver historically has massive upside spikes, but every spike has been followed by 40–90% crashes. The current vertical move looks similar to past bubbles, worth watching with caution.

Hari Rao as known always now alias @ Haribee

The Geo-Politics on Silver in the year 2026 is totally incomparable as to what it was in 1980/2011/2020.  Beside many industrial applications of Silver in general my article pivots around Solar Energy Power, Semi- Conductor, AI & DIGITAL CURRENCY in particular*

1.    Semi- Conductor is the new age Oil which consumes 15%of the total silver.

2.    ⁠Solar Energy Power is the other revolution in Clean Energy where the Panel production needs Silver paste which consumes 30% of the total silver

3.    ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE shaping our future is the reality globally. the backbones are DATA CENTER globally. These centres guzzles power & need top end Semi- Conductor chips. Now experience the connection between SOLAR PANELS and Chips where the heart is again silver dear.

4.    World soon will move to DIGITAL CURRENCY backed by precious metals where GOLD shall be insufficient but shall add SULVER & PLATINUM  in its basket too.

⁠My humble opinion is to take SILVER SERUOUSLY as an alternate investment better than FIXED DEPOSITS.

Let me share the basics about money & investment as per my old economics lessons I learnt in the year 1982  from Shri Patondikar, Economics teacher from Kendriya Vidyalaya Picket in the year 1982.

Money has four functions:(Medium Measure, Standard,Store.)

1.    Medium of Exchange

2.    Measure of Value

3.    Standards of Deferred Payment

4.    Store of wealth

For me the precious metals (Gold & Silver in particular & all the metals in general. Hence precious metals too has the same functions

Precious metals also has four functions:(Medium Measure, Standard, Store.)

1.    Medium of Exchange

2.    Measure of Value

3.    Standards of Deferred Payment

4.    Store of wealth

Thus, MONEY is equal to Gold & Silver

A common man’s best investment of their hard-earned money shall never go beyond 10% annually while the history past 100 years shows there is no fall if one invests in precious metals. This is the reason traditionally everyone across the world in general and Indians in particular invest more in gold than silver the moment they have opportunity to invest to their disposable surplus.

Now every common man has a choice as a no-brainer exercise to choose between

1.    Investment in ETF SILVERBEE growing annually from now onwards 30% & more than 100% Or

2.    Invest in the safest asset FIXED DEPOSITS earning between 7% & <10%

Dynamics of A Stock Market

The stock market is the backbone of any Nation as it’s a hub of entrepreneurial talent to raise monies from public & provide an opportunity to several stakeholders:

1.    Gambler to make money by using the platform for

a.    day’s betting

b.    weekly betting

c.     more than weekly bettings

2.    Informed investor driven by knowledge to us the platform for sustainable short-term & long-term income

3.    Greedy investor who works on hearsay driven by ignorance.

4.    A budding entrepreneur to raise money having an excellent idea & many more

Sock Market in common parlance means a place/platform where the shares of a public companies are traded through a stock exchange, this segment is called CASH SEGMENT as at the end of a transaction, the shares physically moves from the sellers account to buyers account. into individual’s demat account.

Sock Market is also a place/platform where the shares of a public companies are traded without delivery of shares popularly called as DERIVATIVE SEGMENT/MARKET through a stock exchange. According to me this is more in the nature of safeguarding their interest of an informed investors physical holding for hedging purpose in general; or calculated gambling in particular.

Many gullible investors driven through hearsay , in order to make faster buck driven by greed lose their valuable & hard-earned monies. This is why Warren Buffet, a global giant in stock market called this segment as WMD of FINANCE meaning FINANCIAL WEAPON OF MASS DESTRUCTION. I personally request low worth investor to stay away from this segment as this brings misery not only to a foolish investor but puts the entire family at risk.

 

For the ease of understanding I am dividing the Stock Market into two segments

1.    Segment A - ETF Goldbees + ETF Silver bees (Precious Metals)

2.    Segment B - All stocks other than ETF Goldbees + ETF Silver bees (Goods & Services by Industries put together

 

THUMB RULE

1.    When Segment B falls Segment A rises

2.    When Segment B rises  Segment A  falls

MARKET MOOD

Total investment in the market is sum total of Segment A plus Segment B. The mood of the market is only swing between Segment A & Segment B. The indicator of stock market is when steel & cement does well more than 400 industries dependent on it does well too. At this juncture the precious metal is on sell mood as the goods & services become lucrative thus in buy mood.

Similarly, when steel & cement is not doing well more than 400 industries dependent on it does not do well too. At this juncture the precious metal is on buy mood as the goods & services become less lucrative thus is on sell mood.

Why invest in ETF SILVERBEES over physical SILVER BULLION?

Every ETF SILVERBEES underlying asset is SILVER BULLION so it does not make much difference between ETF & physical Silver bullion. Investing in Silverbees is as good as holding cash which is highly liquid & there is no threat of getting stolen or reduction in purity while converting into jewellery items.

As explained above For the next 5-15 years investment in ETF Silverbees is expected to give sustainable return more than 30% on invested value.

 

Warm regards with love

Hari Rao

Former Civil Srvant from IRS 1999 Batch

Date:24^th Jan 2026